Final Pre-Election Update on Senate Races
Republicans appear to be maintaining the
momentum established last week, and it appears control of the Senate will be
decided by the outcomes of races in just 10 states. Georgia and Kansas are the
only states where late trends are favoring Democrats. Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia have
already been deemed Republican conversions, with everywhere else leaning in the
Alaska: The state has a reputation as being
notoriously difficult and expensive to poll given its size and
topography. Because of this, caution is urged when reviewing internal and
public polls. Despite this, it appears that Dan Sullivan (R) may have the
momentum on his side. Several recent polls had him leading Sen. Mark Begich (D)
by three to six points.
Arkansas: The latest poll gave Rep. Tom Cotton
(R-AR-4) his largest lead of the campaign, 49-36 percent. This poll may be an
outlier as the polling average shows a more modest lead of seven points.
Nevertheless, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) is in serious danger of losing his
re-election, and the odds appear to favor a Republican conversion.
Colorado: In six of the last seven polls, Rep.
Cory Gardner (R-CO-4) led Sen. Mark Udall (D) by one to seven points. Democrats
claim their unreleased internal numbers give the Senator a small advantage. The
new mail voting procedure could impact the outcome and the expected margin is
razor thin. Democrats also point to the fact that their candidates have
under-polled in the last two elections. The Colorado Senate race may prove to
be the ultimate bellwether. Expect this one to go down to the wire, but the
available data does seem to favor a very close Gardner upset victory.
Georgia: The polls released last week showed
Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn with the momentum in this race as she led
David Perdue (R) by one to three points. However, this week, it appears
that Perdue has managed to battle back into contention. In the most
recent polls, he has a two to three point lead. The big question is: Will
either candidate be able to secure 50+1 percent of the vote on Election
Day? If not, state election law forces the top two finishers into a Jan.
Iowa: Democrats claim that Rep. Bruce Braley
(D-IA-1) has regained some lost momentum, but outside conservative
organizations have opened up on him with major force, with the launch of
multiple negative ads. It appears that state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) still has the
slight upper hand. In the most recent poll, she led the Congressman – 49
to 45 percent.
Kansas: The state has seen a number of GOP
surrogates – Bush, Cruz, Dole, McCain, Palin, Paul, Romney and Ryan – come to
the aid of Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in an effort to boost turnout and pull him
across the finish line. A new poll released this week gave Independent Greg
Orman a 44-42 percent advantage, a much smaller lead than what he posted
earlier in the month. Without a Democratic candidate in the race, Orman has a
real shot at defeating the Senator.
Kentucky: Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell has shown signs of beginning to pull away from Democrat Alison
Lundergan Grimes. A new internal poll
posts the Senator to a 49-41 percent advantage, but other data suggests a
tightening of the race. Despite McConnell leading by one to six points in new
polls, Republicans still have some concern over this race.
Louisiana: All indications continue to point to
none of the eight candidates on the Senate ballot receiving a majority of the
vote. This means that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA-6) will
likely head to a December 6 run-off. When polls include the other candidates,
and specifically retired Air Force officer Rob Maness (R), neither of the major
party candidates comes close to the majority mark.
New Hampshire: Three
new polls are out, all showing a tightening of the race and closing in favor of
Republican challenger Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts Senator. The latest
three polls show a margin of no more than two points. If a late GOP wave
develops, Brown may be able to ride it back into the Senate.
North Carolina: All
polling is tightening here. Thom Tillis (R), the N.C. Speaker of the House and
Sen. Kay Hagan (D) have been hammering each other over an array of issues in
non-stop political ads causing both of their negatives to rise. Undecided
voters are not excited by either candidate, which is why both campaigns will
place a heavier emphasis on turning-out their own voters in this midterm. Most
polling still gives Hagan the lead, but by only one point.
information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or email@example.com.
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