More than 150 people participated in a March 9 APTA webinar titled “Funding the Transportation Needs of an Aging Population.” David Koffman, principal, Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, and lead investigator for the Transportation Cooperative Research Program report of the same title, led the program, which was jointly promoted by APTA and the National Center on Senior Transportation.

“In the next 10 years [by 2020], the number of people age 65 to 74 will grow by 51 percent and growth will be about 22 percent for those 75 to 84,” said Koffman. “After 20 years, the growth will be about 80-90 percent for both groups. In their 70s and 80s, people will tend to have more mobility limitations and need paratransit services.”

He predicted that demand for dial-a-ride services not covered by the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) will likely grow fastest.

The study estimates that demand for ADA paratransit, non-ADA dial-a-ride services, subsidized taxis and other services will grow from a combined 217 million trips in 2010 to 282 million trips in 2020 and 393 million in 2030.

According to the facts presented in the webinar, transportation services for older riders will require an estimated $4.2 billion for operating costs and $616 million in capital costs in 2010, increasing to $5.4 billion for operating costs and $870 million for capital in 2020, and to $7.4 billion in operating costs and $1.2 billion in capital costs in 2030.

Webinar moderator Rick Ramacier, chair of APTA’s Access Committee and general manager of the Central Contra Costa Transit Authority in Concord, CA, observed that transit systems are already offering additional training for operators and assistance for customers; low floor buses; lifts and ramps; and interior bus amenities such as stanchions and grab bars. He said more transit systems are reviewing bus stops for location and design as well.

“The presentation today described how to expand mobility options within our existing resources. There is no question that the ‘silver tsunami’ is coming our way with the aging population. Those were reasonable estimates. It makes sense that the demand for dial-a-ride will be higher by far, with a much higher cost per passenger than bus or rail services. We’ll need to coordinate within our areas on how public transportation can best be organized in each community,” said Ramacier.

The report, “Funding the Transportation Needs of an Aging Population,” is available online.

As the number of older Americans increases in coming decades, public transit agencies will have to provide more extensive paratransit connections--like this one in Austin, TX--as well as dial-a-ride and other services.