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COVERAGE OF THE BUS & PARATRANSIT CONFERENCE

Closing General Session: Futurist Cites Trends in Public Transportation

John W. Martin, one of the industry’s leading futurists, shared his insights on “Transcendent Trends Reshaping the Future of Transportation” at the Closing General Session.

Martin spoke about trends that are shaping the nation’s future and offered suggestions about how the public transportation industry cannot “just maintain our relevance but be ahead of the curve.”

Poking some good-natured fun at an audience mostly comprising baby boomers and at times taking jabs at millennials, Martin said understanding how generations are wired is key.

For example, he predicted that in the next five years half the workforce will “not be showing up at the office but at the corner office—right down the hall from the bedroom.” This “invisible or [IRS Form] 1099 economy,” he said, will have implications for the public transportation industry because fewer people will be going to work.

Millennials, individuals born between 1983-2001, Martin said, have begun to make their mark on society. “They want to be social entrepreneurs,” he said, and might be more interested in making a difference at work than in making a living. Fifty-one percent of them want to start a new business or plan to, he added.

By 2030, the U.S. population is projected to increase by 10 percent, from 323 million to 358 million, and Martin said public transit systems will need to be prepared for this growth. “It’s a good thing,” he said, noting that more people [means] more potential riders. But there are some issues. “One is community footprint. The desire to be in a 15-­minute livable community [one that is close to essential services such as ­grocery stores, recreation areas and outdoor spaces] is gaining traction nationwide,” he added.

Martin also spoke about the sharing economy. “Today, people share music, bikes, cars and even houses,” he noted. Transportation network companies such as Uber and Lyft will not replace public transit, but will complement it. However, public transit systems need to reinforce that they are the central connectors and work with these providers, particularly regarding first- and last-mile, off-peak and paratransit services.

Over the next 20 years, the country’s population age 65-plus will grow to be 19 percent of the total. Martin said agencies need to expand accessibility to include more space for wheelchairs and walkers and provide more readable maps and schedules.

Martin suggested that connected and autonomous vehicles will be the norm by 2045 and said the challenge for the industry is to invest in future technology today.

In addition, Martin said, agencies will need to position their services as part of a city’s economic place-making program to attract the most desirable employees. “Demography is destiny, and it’s going to impact our workforce,’ he said.

Martin is president and CEO of the Southeastern Institute of Research Inc. in Richmond, VA.

Patrick Scully, executive vice president, Motor Coach Industries, and chair, Business Member Board of Governors, presided over the session, which was sponsored by the Business Member Activity Fund.

Lee Gibson, chief executive officer, Regional Transportation Commission of Washoe County, Reno, NV, closed the session and invited everyone to attend the 2017 Bus & Paratransit Conference in his city.

 

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