The only way you could have missed the political news of the week is if you were in a bunker. The Iowa Caucus was held on Monday and the results were a bit surprising after businessman Donald Trump, who was leading the polls, came in a distant second to Senator Ted Cruz (TX), who won the caucus with 27% of the vote to Trump's 24%. The bigger surprise was the strong third place finish by Senator Marco Rubio (FL), who finished a point behind Trump. Establishment Republicans are hoping Rubio's strong placing will propel him in New Hampshire this coming Tuesday.
On the Democratic side, things were a lot closer than most expected. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton just barely beat Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) by 0.3%. The secretary allocated 23 delegates to Sanders’ 21 on their march to 2,382 delegates needed for the Democratic nomination. Staying on this side of the aisle, the Democrats held their final debate before the New Hampshire primary. Most political pundits observed that this was the best and most substantial policy debate held so far this cycle between the two parties. The fact that there were only two candidates probably had a lot to do with that result, but the unwillingness of Sanders to attack Clinton also helped. The moderators on MSNBC continued to give Sanders an opportunity to attack Clinton on her email scandal, but he declined each time. Clinton, for her part, declined to comment or attack Sanders on some of his campaign operation’s ethical lapses. Unlike the Republican debates, where the candidates let loose with punches at one another, this was a tamed affair that focused mostly on the issues of the day as well as Democratic policy priorities.
So, who will win New Hampshire? One of our favorite websites for predicting election outcomes is fivethiryeight.com and this year they have a handy interactive feature that shows the polls and their model's forecast. On the Democratic side, they forecast that Clinton essentially has no chance of winning, giving Sanders a 99% chance of winning. Clinton on average is currently polling around 37% to Sanders 56%. On the Republican side, their forecast gives Trump a 64% chance of winning with Rubio his closest challenger at 19%. The current polling average has Trump at 31% of the vote followed by Rubio at 15% and then a cluster of candidates between 13-9% that include Cruz, former Governor Jeb Bush (FL), and Governor John Kasich (OH).
Did you know..
...HUPAC is hosting its annual Capitol Conference Congressional Reception on Tuesday, February 23, at 5 p.m. Come mingle, eat and drink with members of Congress and fellow NAHU members while enjoying a view of DC from the top floor of the National Association of Realtors Building while sipping away on your favorite cocktail. We expect between 20-25 members of Congress in attendance that will represent membership from across the country.
Due to limited space, there is a chance that tickets for this event will not be available at the conference, so be sure to go online and pre-order tickets today! The standard ticket price is $175. If you are a member of the HUPAC Capitol Club ($1,000 & up), you can purchase your ticket for $125 by contacting Anthony Perez. The cost of your ticket will count toward your annual HUPAC contribution total and can help you achieve Capitol, Congressional or 365 Club status, if you are not there already. Do not delay, click here to purchase your ticket today.