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COMMENTARY

The Silver Tsunami Is Making a Splash in Public Transit; Succession Planning Can Help Manage the Shift

BY DAVE FULTON
Industry Solutions Manager-Planning, Scheduling and Operations
Trapeze Group

Around 10,000 baby boomers in the United States will turn 65 every day until the year 2030, according to the International City/County Management Association (ICMA).

To put this into perspective, imagine filling Michigan Stadium, the largest American football stadium, almost two-and-a-half times. That is how many American workers are becoming eligible to retire each month.

This emerging demographic, known as the Silver Tsunami, will present many challenges. But can it also offer opportunities for the transit industry?

The Epidemic
By the year 2029, when the last boomers reach retirement age, one in five Americans will be over 65. (Source: Project for Public Spaces) “For a long time, there have been warnings of a ‘Silver Tsunami’ among public employees—a sudden wave of baby boomer retirements that could cripple the workforce.” (Source: Governing magazine) Agencies across the country expect retirement paperwork to begin ­piling up soon. In fact, some have already experienced signs that the tide is rising. (Source: ICMA)

As a result of the poor economy, a typical boomer has worked past retirement age. But as the economy improves, exiting the workforce is becoming attractive to older employees, particularly if pay freezes or federal sequestration are evident in the workplace. (Source: Governing)

The retirement of this generation, which spans nearly two decades, poses problems for transit agencies. Retiree pension obligations are an obvious concern. As retirees begin to collect their pensions, there will be a strain on the support system. “By the year 2025, millennials will make up 75 percent of the American workforce.” (Source: ICMA)

When workers retire on a large scale, there is the risk of a huge loss of institutional knowledge. This loss has the potential to erode their ability to serve the public for years to come. (Source: ICMA)

“Complicating this situation further is the fact that baby boomers around the same age often make up a department’s entire management staff, creating the possibility of many decimating departures within a relatively short time.” (Source: Governing)

Our industry solutions manager for demand response, Jeff Zarr, weighs in, saying that, “for the most part, transit agencies struggle with succession planning. It’s just not in their budget.”

A Tidal Wave for Transit
Overall, government employees tend to be older than other segments of the labor force. (Source: Governing)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compiled median ages for 227 industries for its 2012 Current Population Survey. They found that the Bus Service and Urban Transit Industry had a median age of 51.2, with 66.1 percent of workers age 45-plus. (Source: Governing)

Organizations such as the American Public Transportation Association are trying to change this trend by inspiring youth to take an interest in the public transit industry. APTA hosts the APTA National Public Transportation Career Day annually, as well as the Youth Summit to inspire youth to take up an interest, and potentially choose a career path in transit.

“While workers across all sectors are closing in on retirement age, it’s in the public sector that occupations with some of the oldest workers can be found, which means that a new crop of public servants will soon need to step up and take the helm of government.” (Source: Governing)

How to Manage the Shift
For transit agencies, the shift has been visible for some time. This visibility allows for prompt action to help and mitigate the losses when these assets retire. Knowing this, agencies should develop a plan to weather the Silver Tsunami:

* Knowledge Transfer: One of the most integral aspects of succession planning is the transfer of knowledge. By implementing a formal plan, agencies can avoid decades of experience being lost. Implementing mentors or one-on-one learning arrangements are examples of how to foster this transfer.

* Build a Road Map: This will help to deal with the difficulties of knowledge transfer and succession planning. Mapping out your agencies’ current and future state can help identify where upcoming gaps may be in your staff.

* Develop a Plan: A plan is instrumental in curtailing the effects of the Silver Tsunami. Whether this is an in-house or purchased program, it should aim to grow professionals via learning from the cumulative years of experience already on staff.

* Think Long-Term: It is important to remember that these processes take a long time. Sharing and training new staff with years or decades of knowledge takes time. For example, Sarasota County, FL, administers a yearlong program to groom its leaders. They fill many roles on an interim basis, allowing departments to better train managers. (Source: ICMA)

* Communicate Your Program: Communication is key when it comes to implementing any program in the workplace. Keeping your employees in the loop will help the team to accept any changes and aid in a smooth transition.

The Youthful Future
As the aging population grows, many see the Silver Tsunami as a looming crisis. But rather than resisting change, this shift could present an opportunity for transit.

“This economic phenomenon is an opportunity for millennials and baby boomers to bridge their generational differences and work together to help their local communities become a better and safer place to live, work and play.” (Source: ICMA)

This “Commentary” was originally ­published as a blog entry on Trapeze Group’s website. Reprinted with permission.

Fulton has 30 years of experience in building, designing and implementing planning, scheduling and operations management solutions for the public transit industry. He has served in leadership roles at Trapeze Group for nearly 19 years, and has managed many aspects of the software for the public transit industry.

“Commentary” features points of view from various sources to enhance readers’ broad awareness of themes that affect public transportation.

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